Economist Debunks Claim of Population Explosion in RP

MANILA, Oct. 6, 2010-Is the Philippine population indeed a ticking time bomb as proponents of RH bill say so? One of the country's economists and academicians thinks otherwise.

Dr. Bernardo Villegas, PhD, calling himself a long-term student of demography, claimed that the country's population data is a "statistical abracadabra."

Debunking the claim of population control advocates, Villegas in an article published in CBCP Monitor said, that "he had always suspected some doctoring of population data by birth-control pushers," to justify the government's push for artificial family planning methods.

Villegas, a university professor and senior vice-president of the University of Asia and the Pacific, said the congested slums in Metro Manila area could have created the illusion that the country's population is a "ticking time bomb."

That, coupled with the "inflated" data of the 2000 census, gives the wrong idea that the population is indeed "exploding."

On the contrary, he said, the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) quotes in its website that "the Philippine Population Growth Rate (PPGR) for the year 2010 to be at the slowing rate of only 1.82 percent per annum (vs. the 2.36 percent during the census year 2000, which figure is often still used to justify the view that PGR is "exploding")."

Villegas also cited the claims of former Population Commissioner Dr. Jose Sandejas that the NSCB "single-handedly added 146,582 babies to the actual number recorded in the 2000 census."

The "arbitrary addition," he said, increased the "population growth rate (PGR) and the total fertility rate (TFR) by some 9 percent more than the actual figure measured in the 2000 census."

"The TFR for the year 2000 should have been reported as only 2.7 babies per woman, already dangerously close to zero population growth rate," he further explained.

The NSCB quoted the TFR for 2010 at 2.96 births per woman, which according to Villegas, "represents a significant decline from the NSCB figure of 3.41 births per woman."

He said that even without "aggressive population control campaigns", population is obviously declining because young couples decide to have fewer children than their elders before them.

"The main factors for the decrease in fertility are urbanization, later marriages, and increased education of women," he said.

Villegas quoted Sandejas that the country "does not need a policy on family planning which will tend to slow down PGR even more rapidly" instead it "can reap a demographic dividend if we can slow down or reverse the declining PGR or TFR."

"The government's role is to assist parents to educate and nurture the youth leaders so that they can be more productive citizens in the future." (By Pinky Barrientos, FSP /Roy Lagarde)