Chedeng Moves Erratically

Naga City (Mar 25, 2011 3:30 A.M.) - Chedeng has moved westerwardly, with occasional soutwesterwardly jogs, for the past few hours starting 8 P.M. Tuesday and has not returned to its original northwesterly path.

This is the observation of Mike Padua, a Naga-based private weather forecaster who has enjoyed wide credibility because of track record of accurately predicting the paths of storms and typhoons that targeted Bikol region since 1998. Padua regularly updates the public using his Facebook page, his website, typhoon2000.com, and radio broadcast in a local radio station, DWNX.

This change in Chedeng's path is worrying, Padua said, because it brings forth the spectre of Chedeng following the unpredictability of the 1998 killer typhoon, Frank.

In June 2008, Typhoon Frank traveling west-northwestwardly most of the time was initially forecast to pass through Bicol region but it suddenly changed into a westwardly course towards Mindoro, and before reaching Mindoro followed a direct northward course to hit Metro Manila.

Because of the difficulty in predicting its course, Frank caused thousands of deaths in the Philippines including more than 800 passengers of MV Princess of the Stars that sank near Sibuyan Island at the height of the storm.

Padua hopes that Chedeng's direction becomes clearer in the next 12 hours because if the typhoon's westwardly course persists longer, the provinces of Albay, Sorsogon and Masbate would be in danger of direct hit.

All forecast models are not revised as yet and still show a path of Chedeng just skirting the entire Bikol Region.

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical & Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) has not called Chedeng a typhoon, simply tropical storm, but has raised Signal No. 2 (60-100 kph winds) in the entire province of Catanduanes, and Signal No.1 (45-60 kph winds) in the islands of Burias and Ticao -- both in Masbate -- and entire provinces of Sorsogon, Albay, Camarines Sur and Camarines Sur and Camarines Norte.

Padua already considers Chedeng a typhoon because of definite band formations in the center of the weather system that is already dicernible in satellite images. He notes, however, that Chedeng seems to be having difficulty forming its center.

As of midnight, 12:00 AM Wed May 25 2011, Chedeng's eye was located at 12.6º North Latitude 128.6º East Longitude, or 435 km (235 nautical miles) East of Catarman, Northern Samar. Its one-minute wind velocity peaks at 120 kph near the center, with gusts up to 150 kph, moving west-northweswardly at 17 kph towards Northern Philippine Sea.