Land of the Sinking Sun

Recent news reports in Japan have highlighted the problem of the lost centenarians. Government offices have not kept track of people who may or may not be over 100 years old. In one case, someone is still listed as living in Nagasaki Prefecture even though if he were alive he would be 200 years old!

What I find interesting is not that bureaucrats have failed to keep their records straight and have failed to follow up on the very elderly. Anyone who has dealt with bureaucracy knows how easy it is for things to get lost. What is interesting is that no one seemed to think that keeping a watch on the super-old was important.

When I was a boy, every so often newspapers would report about someone turning 100. The reporters always asked the secret of longevity. One centenarian would say that the secret was to not drink alcohol. A few months later, another would say that the secret was to have a glass of whiskey with every meal. Regardless of the advice, someone’s reaching 100 was national news.

Now, especially in Japan, turning 100 is such an ordinary event that no one, not even bureaucrats, takes notice. Since centenarians have become comparatively common, no one bothers to track them down or keep tabs on them.

It is another sign of a significant change in Japan, the aging of the nation. At the end of World War II, the average life expectancy of Japanese was 41 years. With the end of combat and bombings and war-related shortages of food and medical care, that changed dramatically. Today, life expectancy has doubled to 82 years. More than eight million Japanese are aged 80 or over.

In itself, that is good news. But, the increase in longevity and in the number of elderly is combined with another trend that bodes ill for the near-term future of Japan and presents a challenge to the country and the Church.

Twenty-three per cent of Japanese are 65 or over. In part, that is because people are living longer. But, the reason the 29.44 million people in that age group is such a high percentage is that the number of people under 65 is declining.

Anyone who walks the residential streets of Tokyo can easily note that while the number of Yorkshire terriers and other cute little dogs is high, children are almost non-existent. Even teenagers are a rare sight except in some entertainment and shopping neighborhoods that have become refuges for Japan’s most endangered species, youth.

The fertility rate in a developed country, the average number of children a woman would bear throughout her life, should be 2.1 if the population is to be sustained. The rate in Japan is less than 1.4.

The long-term result of that will be a sharp decline in the population when the current mass of elderly people dies. In fact, that decline has already begun and is accelerating. In about 35 years, the population will drop below 100 million from the current 127 million. When a child born today reaches her 100th birthday, there will be fewer than 45 million Japanese.

The transition from a society with very many elderly to a country with a much smaller population and a more “normal” age spread will be a painful one for Japan. The need for health care and other services for the elderly are increasing at the same time that the number of taxpayers to support those services is shrinking. And the problem is not simply a matter of money. The number of people available to provide services for the elderly is shrinking just at the time when they are most needed.

There is a shortage of ideas about how to serve the aging population and help it through the transition ahead. Part of the problem may be the decline in the number of younger people available to engage in the search for creative responses and then turn their findings into action. It is a new problem in the history of the world, but one that faces or will face other countries over the next few decades.

The situation has an impact upon the Church in Japan as well. Congregations are ageing. Non-white hair at clergy gatherings usually owes its color to something that came out of a bottle. In the Church, as in society, there is a shortage of young people who can develop ideas and make them happen.

Overall, Japanese society seems resigned to the thought that since nothing can be done, it is best to just carry on as long as possible, doing little or nothing. The same seems to be the state of the Church here, though the Church should be a sign of hope and joyful movement into the future.